Litmus— proof or hype —Trade

YouTube's biggest trading channels promise 70–90% win rates. We read the videos, turn the rules into code and run them on years of real prices. Every falling particle is one strategy test. Hype turns to dust at the backtest line. What survives glows.

Strategy testedBacktestHeld up

Channels

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Tests run

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Hype

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Held up

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01 · The verdict

Most strategies don't survive contact with real prices

Every strategy, by verdict. Proof means it made money in every nearby rule version over many years; a weak edge is small and not steady; hype loses money or wins far less than claimed.

02 · Channels

Ranked by subscribers. Judged by results.

The headline claim, the win rate it promised, and the best win rate any of its strategies reached in testing (20+ trades).

03 · Claim vs reality

What they promised, what the backtest found

Bar: tested win rate. Ring: the win rate the video claims. Ember bars held up as proof, cyan bars are a weak edge, red bars are hype.

04 · Ledger

Every test

R is one unit of risk per trade. Versions are nearby rule settings tried, so one lucky setting can't pass. Untested rows are markets with no data yet.

Channel	Strategy	Market	Claim	Trades	Win	Result	Versions +	Verdict

How the lab works

Data: 1-minute gold (Apr–Sep 2026) and BTC (May–Nov 2026); hourly gold and BTC 2021–2026; daily S&P 500 since 1993 and Nasdaq 100 since 1999.
Rules: Each strategy is turned into fixed rules from the video's own words: session times, sweeps, breaks, stops and targets.
Costs: Gold $0.35 per ounce round trip, BTC 0.10%, S&P ETF 0.04%.
Verdicts: Proof: profitable in every nearby version over many years. Weak edge: small profit in most versions, not steady. Break-even: near zero after costs. Hype: loses or wins far less than claimed. Can't test yet: no data for that market (Nifty, US small caps, options) or rules drawn by eye.
Not yet covered: 1-minute Nasdaq and S&P (TJR, Trade with Pat, Patrick Wieland, Scarface, TTrades) and longer 1-minute gold are still downloading.